With all the news about AI taking jobs, and whole industries - coding, graphic designers for example - being replaced by AI tools, it feels like a good opportunity to reflect on history. I don't often get to chat about my weird obsession with the industrial revolutions, but it feels really relevant to the chat around AI.
So let's get a few things straight upfront
- I use these new AI tools pretty much every day.
- I deeply think they are overhyped (they aren’t the magic wand some people claim them to be, and I think we’re near the peak of the Gartner Hype curve on this one).
- AI isn't new - we're just in the generative AI wave (which really kicked off in Nov 2022 with the release of ChatGPT).
- People have been claiming this job and that job are going to be replaced by machines (or AI) for years.
More on all of this but just setting some opinions of mine straight.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
If you haven't read the book with this name written by the head of the World Economic Forum, I suggest you do - it's short and really interesting to see how the prediction unfolded (or you know ask ChatGPT to summarise it…)
Basically it discusses how we've seen the pattern before with the past three industrial revolutions but how this one was going to be more impactful because of the velocity of innovation. And Schwab calls for us to take action because these advances in technology cause greater social inequality.
| Category | First | Second | Third (Digital Revolution) | Fourth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| When | 1765 Late 18th - Early 19th Century |
1870 Late 19th - Early 20th Century |
1969 Mid 20th Century - Present |
Now? |
| Technologies | Steam engine, Factories, Machines, Iron and steel production | Mass production lines, Electricity, Steel production, Telegraph networks, Railroad network, Sewage and water systems, Telephones | Electronics, Information, Communication, (Also Nuclear Power) | AI, Robotics, IoT, Autonomous Vehicles, 3D Printing, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and so on |
| Industry Impacts | Big impact on Textiles, Chemical production, Mining, Agriculture, Paper making | Science, Telecommunications, Bicycles, Maritime, Petroleum, Paper making, Engines | Mobile phones, The Internet, Data | Predicted to impact all |
| Social Impacts | Mass movement from country and towns to cities, Change in conditions for workers, Luddite protests | Improved living conditions, Economic growth, Long Depression due to closures | Tech billionaires, Gig economy, Web freedom vs privacy concerns, Digital divide | Unknown as of yet |
Here’s a little table I put together during my PhD about the industrial revolutions.
Something I'm noticing when people chat about AI and the impact on jobs is the reference to the industrial revolution - often they are discussing how it helped society over all (more jobs, better working conditions, etc). While true, a part of the conversation - the individual impact at the time - is often missed. And unfortunately it feels like we're at a big big risk of repeating this with the current “industrial revolution”.
One thing I love geeking out about is the Luddites. A word often used to indicate someone is opposed to change (particularly technological change). Which is kind of ironic, and points to how misunderstood their intentions were.
The Luddites had a point (which wasn't that they hated technology) - they were experienced seamstresses who wanted their skill to be respected and not completely replaced by machines (sound familiar?). So they protested by damaging the machines, because they valued their human skill.
AI is Coming For Our Jobs - But which jobs?
We’ve been going on and on about which jobs are going to be replaced for years now. For many years the leading research was conducted in 2012. The researchers (Frey & Osborne from Oxford) predicted that 47% of US jobs were at risk of automation. They thought jobs which were routine and predictable were most at risk of “computerisation”, eg:
- Telemarketers
- Cashiers
- Payroll clerks
- Data entry keyers
- Library technicians
Then in 2018, PwC released a report suggesting there would be three ‘waves’ of automation:
- Algorithm wave (early 2020s): data analysis, admin tasks
- Augmentation wave (late 2020s): decision-making support, semi-structured tasks
- Autonomy wave (2030s): physical work, driving, warehouse jobs
They highlighted that transportation, manufacturing, and retail would see the biggest shake-ups (specifically truck drivers, warehouse workers, retail assistants). The UK government did its own thing in 2021, looking at task-level automation risk (which I kind of understand but the results were a bit odd). They concluded that:
- Waiters and waitresses
- Bar staff
- Shelf fillers
- Farm workers
were most at risk. While jobs like teachers, nurses, and social workers were considered lower risk because they require emotional intelligence, context, and care. This year (Jan 2025) the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report predicts that 92 million jobs will be displaced by 2030, but 170 million new ones created (so a net gain of 78 million).
Jobs they expect to decline include:
- Cashiers
- Administrative assistants
- Graphic designers (with the risk of image generation tools)
While they expect these roles to increase by 2030:
- Farmworkers
- Delivery drivers
- Construction workers
- Nurses
- Teachers
- AI & robotics
- Sustainability and energy
Currently it feels like every other week we get - it's over for developers / copywriters / graphic designers so I'm personally a bit skeptical of all these takes. I do think some customer service roles, entry level roles in everything and a range of freelance roles for small jobs are at risk at the minute but I can’t really predict how this plays out.
I think it makes sense to embrace these tools, learn about them and find out where they are useful (while remaining safe and skeptical).
What About Our Joy?
"can you make an image of what joy means to you" - ChatGPT's interpretation of joy
So we can easily see that a lot of the jobs we used to discuss being taken by AI (or computers in general) used to be “boring” repetitive jobs or dangerous manual jobs. But we’re seeing these new Generative AI tools being “creative”.
I’m unsure whether the outputs (images, poems, videos, etc) are actually creative and not just copies. But the worry is about AI taking the joy out of life.
My very small take on this is actually contrary to the thought that AI is taking joy out of things - I actually appreciate “coding by hand” more, it feels different than “vibe coding” (where you use AI tools to write). For me, it’s having to actually think things through and prove that I know how to actually write React and NextJS. But I do also get a bit of awe when I explain what I want to Claude, e.g. an additional page to the website, and it works (and looks good!). Maybe people who refuse to “vibe code” are the new Luddites…
Similarly I like writing weird Sci-Fi stories, and I don’t in any way think AI is infringing on this - actually it makes me want to grab my notebook and write more. It makes my writing feel more human and unique in some way (rather than yet another AI sounding soulless story).
This then makes me wonder how this transforms to things like copywriting or graphic design - surely it is going to make us realise how much the quirky abilities of these creatives are more important and beneficial than getting ChatGPT to produce yet another image or write the same mediocre blurb for a website.
What We’ve Seen with Past Tech "Revolutions"
This isn’t the first time we’ve been told a bit of tech was going to change everything.
Reading
When Kindles came out, people thought physical books were done. But now indie bookshops are thriving again, and loads of people read both. It didn’t replace reading - it just added a new way to do it (with audio books opening up to even more “readers”).
Music
With music, we thought digital would kill off all the old stuff. But vinyl is still treasured by many. And at the same time, tech made it way easier for anyone to record music, upload it to YouTube, and build an audience without needing a label. Music didn’t die - it got more accessible.
Palm Pilots
Palm Pilots (if you're not old enough to remember, they were kind of like old-school Blackberrys - which you also might not be old enough to remember...) were meant to replace all admin jobs - scheduling, note-taking, reminders. But Executive Assistants and admin support roles are still around, and in many ways more strategic than ever. The tech didn’t replace them, it made space for them to do more high-value work.
And then there’s ATMs (Automated Teller Machines, Bank Machines or Hole in the Walls if you’re Northern Irish) - people said these would end the need for bank tellers. It just meant bank staff started doing different things: customer service, financial advice, fraud support. The job changed but in some areas we even have more.
Segways
Then the revolution doesn’t always work - segways were supposed to “revolutionise transport” - now they’re mostly used by tourists. The tech worked, but the hype didn’t quite land.
So Should We Be Panicking?
So when we hear the same thing about AI, maybe we pause. Because historically, these tools rarely wipe jobs out overnight. What they do is shift the tasks, change what the job looks like, and open up new ones we couldn’t have predicted.
And that’s why embracing and preparing for change is a great step, but try not to panic.